More Telecom Obsolescence

A lot of talk lately about the "death of VoIP"... which, of course, is just a hype headline to stir up some controversy in a slow market economy. If you can't sell it, it must be dead... discuss...

On the other hand, I've read a couple things lately that suggest that telephony itself may be dead. And it's a generational thing, again, since it's the 20 somethings who are communicating differently these days, employing new technologies in novel ways. I generally pick up a phone if I need to contact someone... but apparently, that's so last century...

Zeus Kerravala of the Yankee Group writes that his company has consumer survey data indicating "when given a choice, the 25 and under crowd prefers almost any communications method to voice. "

"So what does this mean for the communications industry? IBM and Microsoft have clearly focused product direction and innovation with application integration across their software suites in mind. They approach the market slightly differently, IBM much more "PBX vendor" friendly, but ultimately both paths lead to the same place. Communications infrastructure becomes a commodity that sits below the software layer. Product leadership will be driven by developer support, openness and adherence to standards. Unlike days past, having 800+ features and your own phones isn't going to be the criteria for winning or losing deals. I know it's conventional wisdom that phones do drive a lot of phone system sales, and they have in the past. The fact is, though, that corporate desk phones get used less and less every day. Many users I talk to say they really only use their desk phones to pick up voicemail (unless they have UM, then the phone sits idle). With the smartphones getting more feature rich and the quality of mobile networks improving, we're not far from the day when workers have a laptop and mobile phone to work with, and all the stuff on the desk is gone. Even for many task based workers, having the phone capability built into the PC allows for better integration to the other tools that the user needs, creating a more productive environment."

Another article by Melanie Turek of Frost & Sullivan revealed a 9 year old who uses YouTube as first choice for Internet search, over Google, Yahoo, or other search engines. "When nine-year-olds start choosing to get research information via video; in doing so, they are changing the nature of the format--what purpose it serves, and how it impacts daily life."

"If that's true, it's not a stretch to assume he will likewise be more receptive to communications via video as well; after all, what is communications if not the sharing of information? And if that's true, companies better start offering next-generation employees access to video conferencing on demand, on any device, and whenever they need it. Given Taylor's age, those companies have some time to deploy the necessary endpoints and infrastructure. But given Taylor's habits, the time when a call must include a video conference may come sooner than we think."

A comment about that article mentioned another youngster doing the same thing. The suggestion was the return of oral tradition, versus reading. Curious...

Oh the horror! No phones, no books... But, this is my obsolescence... for the young, the communications future's so bright, you have to wear shades! (thanks Cake).